Will there be a War between South Korea and North Korea?

Simply put, in my opinion, no. There is too much for each side to lose and neither ally (China nor the United States) wants to see war break out on the Korean peninsula.

If you remember, a few weeks ago, North Korea let in some U.N. inspectors to monitor their nuclear enrichment capabilities. Reports came back, depending on the source, that North Korea either does have the ability to produce nuclear weapons or will some time in the near future. The United State's biggest concern is the spread of nuclear materials from one rogue nation to another. Mission accomplished.

Not even a week after allowing the U.N. inspectors to view their nuclear programs, North Korea shelled Yeongpyeong Island killing four South Koreans - 2 military personnel and 2 civilians. This was not over territorial waters or any other claim the DPRK might have made. The major intent of the attack was to show South Korea how, at any time, North Korea could affect their economy. Nobody wants to invest in a country that might go to war where your entire investment could disappear with the dropping of a single bomb. Mission accomplished.

So, now, North Korea has the United States and South Korea right where they want them. Kim Jung-Il, although he uses unconventional methods, at least in the contemporary world, is not a stupid man. He is very cold and calculated but usually gets what he wants. He also knows that if there is an all out war his regime will be over and his son will not take power. A dictator is willing to sacrifice a lot of things when it comes to other people, but he will never knowingly forfeit his power. Kim Jung-Il knows if there is a war, he will lose. Therefore, North Korea, at least its leader, doesn't really want a war, despite his actions.

South Korea does not want a war because they have too much to lose financially. South Korea is a growing economy and technologically advanced. If there is another Korean War they will spend years rebuilding and giving up everything they have worked so hard to achieve since the last Korean War.

Although I would like to say these two countries are important in deciding if there is another Korean War, sadly, in global politics, we all know that the major decisions will eventually come down to the United States and China. This is where things begin to get a bit tricky.

If there is a war, both of these countries will support their allies. China does not want to be encircled by the United States or a pro U.S. government. With the United States currently in Afghanistan and the Cold War over and relationships improving with Russia every day, China would not want to see the U.S. on its Southern border. Also, the U.S. continues to have strong ties with Japan and could launch attacks from there if a current war were to break out. If there is a war, China will continue to support the DPRK and maintain the buffer zone that currently exists between itself and a pro U.S. government.

Nevertheless, China is a growing economic power and in that sense, a threat to the United States. However, this is one war that is too close to call, at least now. I do not think China is willing to give up its global position (in an economic sense) on the hope that it might win a war against the U.S. China has also been very calculated, especially with its reforms. They will not rush to war if they know they will lose. Therefore, at least in my opinion, China does not want there to be a war.

As for the United States, we are too spread out currently. We have troops in Afghanistan and a few left in Iraq. This is not the time to start another war on another front. The United States does not want there to be a war.

North Korea wants money. It is a poor country and has not other bargaining chip than its nuclear weapons - either to sell them to other countries or use it on their neighbors to the South. Once Kim Jung-Il gets his money, he'll be happy and the crisis will be averted. Also, North Korea may be sick of relying solely on China which is why they want to bring the U.S. and South Korea back to the negotiation table.

*I am no expert on the subject nor do I have any credibility in writing this article. These ideas are just my personal beliefs that I have picked up while reading about events the past few weeks. Therefore, feel free to criticize any or all of my ideas.